Oil demand ‘to fall this year and next’

The latest forecast from the US government is for a fall in worldwide demand for oil this year and next as economic growth slows. That would be the first time consumption has contracted for two consecutive years since 1983. The prediction – from the US Energy Information Administration – is bad news for oil companies and producer countries which have gained from this year’s record high prices, but the EIA said it could benefit consumers by sending fuel prices lower.

Oil prices jumped on signs that Saudi Arabia has slashed supplies to customers for January. It is widely expected the producers’ cartel OPEC will agreed to cut production in an effort to boost prices when it meets next week. And Russia – which is not an OPEC member but is one of the world’s largest oil exporters – is also signalling output cuts with details to be announced soon.

Output slumps across Europe

Industrial output sank in several European economies in October as the slowing economy and falling sales forced factories to scale back production in the car industry and other hard-hit sectors. Analysts said November and December will be even worse. In France car production plummeted 14.3 percent – the sharpest drop since August 1999 – in Italy it was down 5.8 percent. Compared with the same month last year, overall industrial output in October fell 7.2 percent in France – the largest decline since such records began in 1991. It was down 7.1 percent in Sweden, 6.9 percent in Italy and 4.5 percent in Greece.

On the basis of those figures , economists said they would scale back their already-negative outlooks for gross domestic product in the fourth quarter. They also pointed out that order bookings are very weak, which is not a good sign looking forward. Data released earlier this week showed that industrial output in Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, also fell by more than expected in October.

IEA forecasts oil demand increase in 2009

Demand for oil will grow in 2009 after shrinking this year according to the International Energy Agency. The prediction from the IEA is in stark contrast to the US government’s Energy Information Administration, which said this week that demand is expected to shrink next year. The IEA – which is an adviser to 28 industrialised countries – sees demand rebounding, on the assumption the global economy will gradually recover in the second half of next year.

Play/Pause Video Airlines Boeing has again been forced to push back the schedule for its 787 Dreamliner

It’s the fourth major delay for the revolutionary, carbon-composite aircraft. It’s now about two years behind the original schedule. The delays are due to late redesigns, underperforming suppliers and a shortage of key parts.

In addition Boeing suffered a fifty eight day strike by machinists at its main plants in Seattle in September and October. The delays threaten to seriously damage the company’s finances and reputation. It now says the first test flights should take place before the middle of next year with the first deliveries early in 2010.

EU split over response to economic woes

Europe’s deepening economic problems dominate the EU summit in Brussels. But big differences of opinion have emerged on how to respond. Germany has criticised countries for rushing into untested economic rescue packages,but in Brussels Chancellor Angela Merkel took a more conciliatory tone.

She said: “We support all necessary efforts to stimulate and strengthen the economy, we support the European Commission’s proposal to devote 1.5 percent of Europe’s gross domestic product to that. We think every country should do what it thinks necessary. Germany has already taken a first step. On that we’re in full agreement with the Commission. The most important thing for us in Germany is protecting jobs.”

Moves by British leader Gordon Brown have not found favour with Germany’s Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck. Brown’s decision to slash value added tax in the UK was strongly criticised by Steinbrueck in an interview with Newsweek magazine. He said: “All that will do is raise Britain’s debt to a level that will take a whole generation to work off.”

A Brown ally, former Treasury specialist Ed Balls, replied that Germany’s ability to respond to the global economic downturn is being hampered by domestic politics. He added: “Once the politics in Germany is resolved they will be acting with us too.”

Money, climate at crux of EU summit

Major economic stimulus and climate change pacts are in play for the European Union at its leaders’ summit, now underway in Brussels.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has had a highly-charged six months at the head of the rotating EU presidency. Before the summit is through, he will try to bridge a deepening rift over Berlin’s reluctance to spend more to revive the EU’s economy. Prime Minister Brian Cowen is expected to clarify Dublin’s intentions on Ireland’s way forward with the Lisbon Treaty on reform of the EU’s institutions. The other leaders have, in principle, backed concessions. Chancellor Angela Merkel before the summit spoke of Germany’s ‘responsibility as Europe’s biggest economy,’ and looking ‘at what we may have to do.’ Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said Italy is prepared to veto a carbon emissions deal if it does not get concessions. He said an economic crisis was not the best time for making these decisions.

The bloc’s leaders want to agree on a 200-billion-euro anti-recession package. Germany’s finance minister Peer Steinbrück has singled out British Prime Minister Gordon Brown for criticism, saying policy proposals for multi-billion-euro deficit spending were “breathtaking and depressing”.

Elveţia intră de mâine în spaţiul Schengen

Elvetia va deveni parte a spatiului Schengen de maine, 12 decembrie. Astfel, cetatenii care locuiesc intr-o tara acoperita de acest tratat pot sa intre in Elvetia fara sa mai arate un act de identitate, in timp ce locuitorii din tari membre UE dar care nu fac parte din spatiul Schengen (printre care si Romania), pot sa intre de maine in Elvetia doar aratand vamesilor un act de identitate. In fapt acesta a fost chiar unul dintre obstacolele puse pe tapet in cadrul dezbaterilor publice din Elvetia, daca este oportun ca romanii si bulgarii sa poata intra nestingheriti.

Trebuie luat in seama faptul ca, la 12 decembrie vor fi desfiintate punctele de trecere a frontierei terestre pe care Elvetia le are cu Germania, Austria, Italia si Franta, toate fiind tari membre UE si in spatiul Schengen. Punctele vamale din cadrul aeroporturilor vor fi insa pastrate pana la 29 martie 2009. Pana atunci, chiar si cetatenii din tari membre ale zonei Schengen vor fi nevoiti sa arate pasaportul inainte de a intra pe teritoriul elvetian.

Problema Liechtenstein
Daca punctele de trecere a frontierei cu cele patru tari sunt desfiintate, o masura contrara este luata la granita cu micul principal Liechtenstein. Statul aflat intre Elvetia si Austria nu este membru al spatiului Schengen, iar granita comuna cu Elvetia devine granita Schengen si trebuie impus un control. Pana acum, Liechtenstein avea o uniune vamala cu Elvetia, controlul neexistand la granitele comune. Legaturile dintre cele doua state erau chiar mai stranse, principatul fiind singurul stat din lume in afara de Elvetia care are ca moneda oficiala francul elvetian. Mai mult decat atat, controlul la granita dintre principat si Austria era efectuat de vamesi elvetieni.

In cadrul discutiilor preliminare s-a pus problema introducerii controlului la granita cu principatul, iar solutia imediata a fost admiterea simultana a ambelor tari in mecanism, astfel incat granitele Liechenstein sa nu fie granite Schengen, dar mai ales sa nu se instaleze controlul intr-o granita libera. Din nefericire acest fapt nu a fost posibil, Liechtenstein avand intarzieri in implementarea procedurilor necesare. Astfel, Elvetia a fost singura din grupul celor doua tari care a respectat calendarul si a putut sa fie astfel admisa la termenul stabilit.

Granita in chestiune a fost deschisa initial in 1923 si iata ca va fi restrictionata in 2008. Pentru a nu inrautati regimul transportului de persoane din Liechtenstein in Elvetia si invers – mai ales ca locuitorii din bogatul principat nu pun probleme legate de azil politic si nu prezinta pericol infractional pentru Elvetia – restrictionarea frontierei se va reduce la instalarea unui sistem de supraveghere video pe toata lungimea liniei de demarcatie. Noroc ca granita comuna nu are decat 41 de km, iar investitia nu va fi extraordinar de mare pentru bugetul de stat elvetian, doar cateva milioane de franci. Controlul video va fi dublat de patrule mobile. Cand Liechtenstein va deveni membru Schengen, camerele si patrulele vor fi retrase.

De asemenea, un regim foarte simplificat al vizelor de intrare in Elvetia precum si pastrarea granicerilor elvetieni la granita dintre Liechtenstein si Austria sunt deja incluse intr-o intelegere semnata de ministrul de Justitie elvetian Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf si premierul Liechtensteinului Otmar Hasler. Cand micul principat va termina de implementat toate procedurile si va ratifica tratatul spatiului Schengen urmand apoi sa fie inclus in randul tarilor membre, granita cu Elvetia va redeveni libera, iar cea cu Austria va fi si ea deschisa. Se estimeaza ca acest lucru se va materializa in decursul anului viitor.

Coordonate generale
In spatiul Schengen intra aproape toate tarile UE, cu exceptia Romaniei, Bulgariei si Ciprului care nu sunt inca pregatite, dar si a Marii Britanii si a Irlandei care au preferat sa nu intre inca in sistem. In fapt, ca urmare a refuzului britanic, Irlanda s-a vazut nevoita sa adopte aceeasi pozitie pentru a nu inchide granita terestra ce o separa de Irlanda de Nord, care este in prezent deschisa. De asemenea, din spatiul Schengen mai fac parte Norvegia si Islanda, tari din afara UE. Dupa ce Liechtenstein va fi admis, toate cele patru tari membre EFTA (Elvetia, Islanda, Liechtenstein si Norvegia) vor fi in interiorul zonei Schengen.

Admiterea Elvetiei aduce cu sine si includerea in zona Schengen a enclavelor apartinand statelor vecine. Astfel, teritoriul Busingen ce apartine Germaniei si Campione d’Italia ce apartine Italiei, sunt acum in interiorul zonei Schengen si nu mai beneficiaza de statut vamal special.

Rusia ameninţă cu stoparea transportului de gaz către Ucraina

Alexei Miller, CEO al Gazprom, a declarat ca amanarea platilor pe care Ucraina le are de facut va putea sa aiba „serioase consecinte negative”. Compania ucraineana de gaze Naftogaz datoreaza gigantului rusesc circa 2,4 miliarde de dolari pentru gazul primit in perioada septembrie-noiembrie a acestui an, inclusiv penalitatile. Daca nu va plati pana la finele anului, penalitatile si factura pe decembrie vor ridica suma de plata la 3,06 miliarde de dolari.

Printre amenintatile rusilor se numara intreruperea transportului de gaz catre Ucraina, dar si amanarea discutarii unui viitor contract numai dupa plata restantelor. Problema este ca prin Ucraina tranziteaza 80% din cantitatea de gaz metan pe care Rusia o exporta Europei, iar taierea gazului ar putea insemna o criza pe plan european.

Un episod similar s-a intamplat in iarna 2005-2006, cand rusii au intrerupt gazul trimis Ucrainei pe motiv de neplata si au pus astfel in pericol siguranta energetica a sute de milioane de cetateni europeni cu facturile la zi. Alexei Miller, CEO al Gazprom, a declarat ca amanarea platilor pe care Ucraina le are de facut va putea sa aiba „serioase consecinte negative”. Compania ucraineana de gaze Naftogaz datoreaza gigantului rusesc circa 2,4 miliarde de dolari pentru gazul primit in perioada septembrie-noiembrie a acestui an, inclusiv penalitatile. Daca nu va plati pana la finele anului, penalitatile si factura pe decembrie vor ridica suma de plata la 3,06 miliarde de dolari.

Printre amenintatile rusilor se numara intreruperea transportului de gaz catre Ucraina, dar si amanarea discutarii unui viitor contract numai dupa plata restantelor. Problema este ca prin Ucraina tranziteaza 80% din cantitatea de gaz metan pe care Rusia o exporta Europei, iar taierea gazului ar putea insemna o criza pe plan european.

Un episod similar s-a intamplat in iarna 2005-2006, cand rusii au intrerupt gazul trimis Ucrainei pe motiv de neplata si au pus astfe in pericol siguranta energetica a sute de milioane de cetateni europeni cu facturile la zi.

Fostul premier macedonean a fost trimis la închisoare pentru fraudă şi abuz în serviciu

Fostul premier al Macedoniei a fost trimis la inchisoare, impreuna cu un fost comandant al armatei fiind acuzati de frauda si abuz in serviciu. Vlado Buckovski si militarul Metodi Stambolski vor petrece fiecare cate trei ani si jumatate la penitenciar.

Ei doi au incheiat in 2001 un contract referitor la imbunatatirea capacitatii de aparare a tarii care a produs bugetului de stat pagube estimate la 2,4 milioane de euro. Buckovski s-a aratat cel mai afectat de verdictul primit, sustinand ca sentinta este „scandaloasa” si ca sistemul judiciar din Macedonia nu este independent.

De altfel, acolitii celor doi, Aco Gjurcevski, Nelko Menkinovski si Mitre Petkovski, au primit cate trei ani de inchisoare fiecare.

Vânzările Volvo, la cel mai mic nivel în ultimii 12 ani

Constructorul suedez Volvo, detinut in prezent de FordMotor Co., se asteapta ca vanzarile globale din acest an sa ajunga la circa 300.000 de unitati, dupa ce in 2007 compania a reusit sa comercializeze 458.323 masini.

Ultima data cand vanzarile Volvo au scazut sub 380.000 de unitati anual a fost in 1996 (363.322 masini). Incepand cu anul 1999, cand Volvo a fost preluat de Ford, vanzarile brandului s-au situat in jurul a 400.000 de unitati, sau chiar mai mari anual.

Ford a anuntat ca analizeaza situatia Volvo si se andeste chiar la vanzarea acestui brand.

Vanzarile Volvo au scazut cu 29,7% in SUA, ajungand la 68.149 unitati in perioada ianuarie-noiembrie, fata de aceeasi perioada a anului trecut.

De asemenea, vanzarile lunii noiembrie ale Volvo pe piata americana au scazut cu 46,5%, la 4.404 unitati, fata de aceeasi luna din 2007.

Sursa: ANE